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Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

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Now, with Japan promising to open two more IR licences in 2027, ambitious bidders are craning their necks for a leg up over the competition. But Japan has telegraphed mixed messaging on the casino industry.

Depsite it having liberalised gambling in pursuit of the economic benefits that casinos can bring, its regulatory architecture and deeply ingrained social attitudes are not particuarly pro gambling.

The regulatory framework strictly keeps the casino component in check. Casino floor space is capped at 3% of the total floor area of the IR, while Japanese residents are restricted to three visits per week and 10 visits within any 28-day period. Each visit also carries a mandatory ¥6,000 entry fee, reinforcing the government’s intent to curb excessive gambling even as it opens the door to casinos.

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The same intelligence can be useful to gambling companies and suppliers that want to monitor where their products are appearing. Madsen says Trace2Trace currently has a client that fits that description, although he cannot disclose its identity.

Madsen is clear that Trace2Trace does not shut websites down. Instead it tracks domains, identifies connections and documents changes so that regulators, enforcement authorities or other customers can use the information.

That distinction also informs his view of the wider battle. Asked whether illegal gambling can actually be defeated, his answer is: “No, but you can make it very difficult for them.”