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For all the hoopla surrounding prediction markets and expectations that the industry will eat away at sportsbooks’ NFL handle this season, the old guard industry is expected to control nearly 80% of pro football wagers this year.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.
Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.
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For James Curwen, chief executive at Yggdrasil, the tension between the industry’s need for fresh content and the commercial realities of producing it goes to the heart of the challenge.
“The industry has a content problem,” he says. “There are thousands of games being released and too many of them are variations of something that already exists.
“Part of the reason is economics. When games take months and significant money to develop, people naturally become risk-averse. Building on something that already works becomes the safer option.”
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As for the regulatory outlooks for the ETFs, the SEC hasn’t publicly commented on the NHL funds’ fates and it’s too early to tell what will come of the MLB filings, but there are hundreds of futures-based ETFs on the market today.
That may be a sign that pro sports futures ETFs could avoid the “novel” label that’s been a hindrance in bringing other ETFs to market.
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